A07 – Data-based model order reduction for stochastic dynamics

This project started with the second funding period in July 2021.

Model order reduction (MOR) constructs computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROMs)
of large-scale dynamical systems by approximating high-dimensional with low-dimensional states.
Such reduced models are beneficial in optimisation, uncertainty quantification, inverse problems
and control, where models are evaluated many times for different inputs.
A central task in this setting is to identify solution manifolds and approximate them using
low-dimensional linear subspaces. By projecting the system dynamics onto such a subspace, one
can define a reduced state variable that closely approximates the behaviour of the full system.
Numerous MOR techniques have been developed to tackle such problems in the deterministic
setting.
The need for model reduction becomes even more pronounced in stochastic contexts, where
the computational cost of system evaluations can become prohibitive. In particular, Markov
Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, which require repeated application of possibly high-
dimensional systems, are too costly.
Most MOR methods require full knowledge of both structure and coefficients of the underlying
system of equations. Often, this information is not available. Therefore, approaches based on data
are practically more useful.
As a concrete example, in pharmacology, it is crucial to understand treatment response vari-
ability, which models based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) can predict based on
patient information (covariates) and drug concentration or biomarker measurements. However,
estimating the coefficients in a full SDE model is challenging and can even be computationally
infeasible. Data-based MOR approaches can be used to overcome this issue.
The goal of this project is to develop and analyse projection- and data-based MOR methods for
time-dependent linear and nonlinear stochastic systems of the form:
dx(t) = [ f (x(t)) + g(x(t))u(t)]dt + h(x(t))dB(t),
y(t) = c(x(t)), (1)
with u an L2-control, B a Brownian motion, x a high-dimensional state vector and y the quantity
of interest. Evaluating (1) for many controls u and samples of B is computational expensive,
sometimes infeasible. It is even more challenging to solve optimal control or stopping problems
with (1). The goal of this project is to learn the dominant subspace of (1) from (noisy) data, to
compute an associated projection onto a low-dimensional subspace resulting in a ROM that is
computationally cheap, and to apply them to pharmacological models.

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